The immediate impact of the new economic stabilization bill, signed by President George Bush today, will be renewed confidence in the market, two real estate experts said in separate interviews with the editors of REALTOR® Magazine. But don’t expect credit markets to turn around tomorrow. The recovery process will take time, say Kenneth Riggs, head of the commercial real estate analysis firm Real Estate Research Corp. in Chicago and Gary Keller, head of national residential real estate franchisor Keller Williams in Austin, Texas. We asked Keller about the impact of the credit crisis and the stabilization bill on residential real estate, and we asked Riggs for the same analysis from a commercial real estate standpoint.
REALTOR® Magazine: Now that both the House and the Senate have passed the stabilization bill and President Bush is set to sign it, what can we expect the impact to be?
Gary Keller: The market should regain some confidence, and since markets are built mainly on confidence, that’s no small thing. In fact it’s a huge thing and it’s imperative for the market to move forward. But beyond that, we have to wait and see. Although the intent of the legislation is to free up capital for lending on homes, cars, college, and business inventories, the government doesn’t have a mechanism in the bill for making the banks turn around and lend the money back. So no one knows what will actually happen once a bank has its capital freed up.
Kenneth Riggs: Well, it should give calmness to the financial markets by showing that we will in fact work through this crisis. That said, I don’t see the fundamental, or the mechanics, of capital changing right away. That won’t happen until we see how this package will actually operate and how well Treasury can do in buying and then selling the securities. So, the immediate impact would be that the market should at least breathe a sigh of relief. The next step will be to give a foundation for the credit markets to start functioning a little better. We will never get back to the level that we were a year ago; that’s part of the market cleansing itself of a culture in which capital was just too available and too cheap. The bill, too, is raising the FDIC insurance limit for bank deposits to $250,000. Many people will say, “Well, the small person might not have that much.” But it’s really small businesses that are being addressed here, and they’re what run our country. This will allow small companies like a lot of real estate brokerages to start focusing on their business, rather than the credit crunch, and to concentrate on how they can become productive.
